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HOLD ON STRONG

By Crisis and Transition Substack

Not “crisis” — crisis and TRANSITION. Transition to what? To a life-centered society. A new kind of society based on a new story of our humanity, one that calls for cooperation, regeneration and inclusion. A society that is for all. And that honors the Earth.

We‘re not naïve. We acknowledge the magnitude of the polycrisis, the scope of which goes far beyond collapsing democracy in America. In truth, we face a collapsing civilization. If we don’t transition.

Our belief: Four factors are essential to make the needed transition.

hope
vision
empowerment
solutions

Our articles seek to build these conditions. We’ve made them the sub-title of our Substack. We’ve made them the substance of our articles.

Our commitment: To give readers thoughtful and compelling content that builds hope, vision, empowerment, and solutions. This is not our brand. This is our mission.

Perfect Storm

As we begin our third year, what is the state of the global polycrisis?

There’s a reasonable chance of a perfect storm a few months out. Not one so momentous that it triggers collapse. But a significant ratcheting up in the dysfunctions, in the collective pain. In the number of lives impacted by a civilization in crisis. Consider:

The 2026-27 El Nino that’s ramping up is variously characterized as “super”, “historic”, “uncharted”, and “Godzilla”. The last time there was a comparable El Nino was in 1877. Fifty million died of starvation. (A recent study by legendary climatologist James Hansen shows that this year’s El Nino is supercharged by climate warming — so a preview of El Ninos to come.) If the Godzilla El Nino powers atmospheric rivers into California, there may be an ARk Storm mega-flood in the Central Valley.

Global warming has, for all practical purposes, reached the 1.5 C threshold set by the 2015 Paris Agreement as being the upper limit of allowable global warming to avoid geophysical tipping points. The first climate tipping point has probably been reached — tropical coral reefs now face irreversible collapse. James Hansen and others claim that climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon is far greater than the figure used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) projections. So, temperatures are rising much faster than projected, speeding up the onset of climate catastrophes.

Global oil reserves continue to dwindle. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has dropped from 714 million barrels to 243 million barrels. The SPR must retain roughly 150 million barrels in place just to maintain its basic operational structure. With constricted tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz oil supplies continue to dwindle. The possibility of a few months out reaching “tank bottom” is real.

American democracy — already hobbled by Citizen’s United, hyper gerrymandering, voter suppression, end of Voting Rights Act protections, social media disinformation, poll station closures, and voter intimidation — faces the possibility of near total collapse in the mid-term elections.

Between El Nino destruction, tariff wars, inflation in diesel and fertilizer costs, climate change, water shortages, and the Ukraine War, global food production is increasingly precarious. Near term food shortages — or at least major food price inflation pressures — are all but certain.

US governmental debt now stands at $40 trillion and grows by a trillion every four months, which, along with other factors, is driving up bond prices. There’s an AI investment bubble. Economic growth is stalling. Inflation remains high. Tariffs are disrupting global trade. Japan’s wobbling yen could force it to dump its holdings of US government debt. Among other economic fragilities. The 70 trillion dollar wealth transfer from the American working class to the uber rich. It’s all an economic house of cards, waiting for a good gust to topple.

There’s the persistent Iran War, and all that could go wrong as it lurches on.

Then there’s the growing possibility of black swan events. Consider, for starters, the people with power in America’s executive branch: Stephen Miller, Pete Hegseth, Robert Kennedy Jr., Howard Lutnick, Todd Blanche, and Markwayne Mullin. Donald J. Trump. What could go wrong?

The environment, the economy, the society, and the government are all under mounting stress. Resiliency is evaporating. Unease is growing. Cracks are expanding.

Our framing: The worn out, dysfunctional system must burn down before the phoenix can rise from the ashes. This is the dying of the old order to create space for a new era to emerge. If we rise to build it.

What Is Our Solid Rock?

The late Ben Bochner opened his anthem, Hold on Strong, with these lyrics:

Hard times are coming, you can feel it in the air

You can read it in the paper, you can see it everywhere

Gonna be trials and tribulation, astonishment and shock

You’re gonna need a strong foundation, need a solid rock.

What is our solid rock? How do we position our lives for the hard times that are coming? How do we position ourselves so we can resiliently function as harbingers of change?

This question of preparing is on the minds of many — not just the preppers, whose social media fodder is filled with hysterical conspiracy theories. There are many thoughtful people who maintain what Nate Hagens calls a wide boundary lens, and who rationally weigh the news with open eyes. They also wonder: How to position myself?

Better said: How should we reposition ourselves? — as we are all in this together.

I have thoughts:

First and foremost: Develop ways to cultivate love, compassion, and universal respect. Appreciate the sacredness of life and let that be your guiding value.
Second: Cultivate community, whether it be based in neighborhood, family, municipality, virtual community , intentional community, or affinity group.
Third: Nurture your personal resiliency. Live well. Maintain positive thoughts. Avoid all that’s toxic to body and mind. Be resilient so that you can be present for others.
Fourth: Engage in service. Be helpful to others and to your community. And to our planet. Where appropriate, serve in collaboration, as a social practice.
Fifth: Know yourself. Don’t adopt self-images sanctioned by capitalist society. Or by creeds and cults. Or influencers. Root yourself in your essential humanity, in your human dharma. Seek wholeness in community and place.
Sixth: Participate in spreading new social vision, building new social models, and supporting progressive social movements. Be in solidarity with those bringing up a new life-centered society, and those resisting parasitic power structures.

Dream Team for Transformational Change

Suzanne Taylor is the creator of the Now What? Substack. She’s had a personal mission to seek out Substack writers that are addressing the big picture. She’s aware of the power of collaboration, which has led her to suggest members of a “Dream Team for our transformational challenge”.

I’m aware of many of those that she’s named to her dream team list: Brian Swimme, Marianne Williamson, Geoffrey Diehl, Johan, Nate Hagens, Corbin Trent, and Ernesto van Peborgh. Christy Shaver, of course.

Each of these Substack luminaries has a strength to offer; each has a contribution to make.

The Crisis and Transition Substack rolls with this same spirit. It’s produced by a team of people having diverse talents and diverse social engagements. Clare is a pillar of the Regenerate Cascadia bioregional movement. Alberta is the Board Chair of the Neohumanist College. John works with an ad hoc group advocating for a state bank in Oregon. Christy is a weaver in the grassroots efforts to rebuild Lahaina.

Each of us have our feet planted in concrete projects. We are both dreamers and doers. But it is the dream, the vision, of a life-centered society that propels our collaboration in producing Crisis and Transition.

This is our piece, our Substack contribution, to transformational change.

It is an important contribution. It’s a contribution that deserves support, now more than ever.

As Crisis and Transition goes into its third year — a year that promises to be momentous — we’re more convinced than ever of the value of our voice, of our role in the Great Turning.

As with all worthy transformational endeavors, we require support to be sustainable. There is the support of “like, share, comment and subscribe” — which we appreciate. Truly. But our start-up seed money is running out. So the bigger need now is for paid subscriptions. And benefactors.

Despite our financial challenge, we’re not just determined to hold the course. We’re boldly envisioning new initiatives — which I’ll speak about in future articles.Got to Hold On

In the work of affecting change, solidarity is important. To bring this home, We’d like to share the chorus to Ben Bochner’s Hold on Strong:

We gotta hold on to each other, hold on strong

We gotta hold on to each other, until the danger’s gone

We gotta hold on to each other, all night long

We gotta hold on to each other, got to hold on

May we hold on to each other with all the love, compassion, respect and fierce strength our human spirits can muster.